Does fiscal policy operate independently?
Causal Pathway Verified Backdoor isolation confirms fiscal-to-monetary transmission
Monetary policy does not operate in a vacuum The backdoor is structurally identified
Source: FRED FYONET + BEA NIPA Method: Causal Inference · Backdoor Isolation (Pearl, 1995) Finding: Federal outlay velocity modifies private-sector liquidity Analytically grounded · Formally audited · Cryptographically signed