Does fiscal policy operate independently?
Causal Pathway Verified
Backdoor isolation confirms fiscal-to-monetary transmission
Monetary policy does not operate in a vacuum
The backdoor is structurally identified
Source: FRED FYONET + BEA NIPA
Method: Causal Inference · Backdoor Isolation (Pearl, 1995)
Finding: Federal outlay velocity modifies private-sector liquidity
Analytically grounded · Formally audited · Cryptographically signed